As college application season heats up, a sobering trend emerges: fewer Americans are pursuing higher education, leading to widespread college closures and a shift in educational priorities.
At a Glance
- Over 500 private colleges have closed in the last decade, triple the previous decade’s rate
- College enrollment has dropped 15% from 2010 to 2021, with only 62% of high school seniors now pursuing college
- Tuition at four-year institutions has decreased in inflation-adjusted terms since 2020-21
- Alternative paths like vocational schools and military service are gaining popularity
- The “enrollment cliff” predicted for 2025 threatens many colleges’ financial stability
The Enrollment Decline
The American higher education landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. As high school seniors embark on college visits and applications, they’re entering a market vastly different from that of their predecessors. Undergraduate enrollment has plateaued since the 2011-12 academic year, with a marked decline in the percentage of high school graduates enrolling in college since fall 2018.
This trend is not merely a fluctuation but a significant downturn in the demand for traditional college education. The “enrollment cliff” refers to a staggering 15% drop in student enrollment from 2010 to 2021. Currently, only 62% of high school seniors are pursuing college, a figure that has education experts and college administrators deeply concerned.
The school blames declining enrollment, growing costs of higher education, and decreased financial support.
— Northern News Now (@NorthernNewsNow) March 12, 2024
The Financial Burden
The cost of higher education has long been a point of contention for American families. “It’s no big secret that the cost of attending a four-year college or university in the United States is out of control,” the Wall Street Journal reported. This financial burden has become increasingly untenable for many, with the projected cost of a four-year private college education reaching an astronomical $250,000.
“You should certainly see them lay off nontenured faculty and staff,” an unnamed expert stated, highlighting the measures colleges might take to adjust to decreased demand.
However, there’s a silver lining for prospective students. Tuition at four-year colleges and universities in the US has decreased in inflation-adjusted terms since the 2020-21 academic year. This decline in tuition prices is a direct response to the drop in demand for college education, potentially making higher education more accessible for those who still choose to pursue it.
The Ripple Effect
The consequences of this enrollment decline are far-reaching. Over 500 nonprofit private colleges have closed in the last decade, “three times what it was in the decade prior,” according to the Wall Street Journal. These closures not only impact students and faculty but also have significant repercussions for local economies, affecting jobs and labor income in college towns across the nation.
The root causes of this trend are multifaceted. Declining birth rates since 2007, exacerbated by the 2008 Great Recession, are expected to further reduce college enrollments from 2025 to 2037. Additionally, there’s a noticeable shift in the types of degrees pursued, with a decline in humanities, history, and social sciences, and growth in natural sciences, mathematics, computer science, and health professions.
Alternative Paths
As traditional college enrollment wanes, alternative career paths are gaining traction. Vocational schools, entrepreneurship, and military service are becoming increasingly attractive options for high school graduates. The U.S. job market is experiencing a significant shortage of blue-collar workers, with a projected shortfall of 550,000 plumbers by 2027.
However, even military enlistment has seen a decline, with several branches failing to meet recruitment goals. This trend underscores a broader shift in how young Americans view their post-high school options and career prospects.
